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2024 HVAC Industry Trends and Statistics: Tips to Stay Ahead

January 30, 2024 6 min. read
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You have a lot of changes to adapt to as an HVAC contractor in 2024. Those include:

  • Updates to HFC legislation
  • Continued labor shortages
  • New innovations in smart HVAC systems
  • Changing customer expectations

We’ll help you plan for this big year. Keep reading to see the most important HVAC industry trends and changes you can expect in 2024—all coming from expert researchers.

You’ll also find advice on preparing your HVAC business for these changes.

Inflation has reduced homeowner spending on residential HVAC

High rates of inflation hit homeowners hard last year—and many are still feeling the effects.

In 2024, residential improvements and repair in the U.S. will shrink for the first time since 2010. This could mean decreased spending for new residential HVAC equipment.

Still, 97% of new single-family homes in the U.S. have air conditioners. This means there are plenty of opportunities to sell HVAC service contracts that help homeowners keep their HVAC unit clean and tuned up.

Commercial HVAC spending could increase

Developers in the United States are building more commercial spaces like malls, offices, and airports in 2024. This is driving more commercial HVAC sales.

The demand for air conditioning and heating systems in the commercial sector could grow at a rate of 7% from 2023 to 2030.

HVAC market statistics

These numbers show how the HVAC market is looking in 2024:

Smart HVAC technology trends

More opportunities to sell smart thermostats

Homeowners who can afford a new HVAC system are spending more on smart HVAC systems than before.

But there’s still a large customer base that’s missing smart HVAC technology: aging homeowners. 77% of millennial homeowners invest in smart technology—but only 25% of baby boomer homeowners do.

Educate your older customers about the benefits of smart HVAC systems. A smart thermostat can improve their indoor air quality and save them 8% percent on utility bills.

Geothermal and ERV systems are growing popular

There’s a growing demand for closed-loop geothermal HVAC systems. A geothermal heat pump can reduce utility costs in homes and businesses by up to 60%.

More customers are aware of energy recovery ventilators (ERV). Without letting heat escape, ERVs improve indoor air quality and ventilation.

Gen Z’s attitude about trades careers looks positive

Many of the newly-opened positions in the HVAC industry could get filled by the youngest employable generation: Gen Z.

We surveyed 1,000 U.S.-based high-school and recent post-high-school-aged individuals (18-20) to hear their attitudes about careers in the trades. Here’s what we found:

  • 75% say they’re interested in exploring vocational schools that offer paid, on-the-job training.
  • 56% believe that “blue-collar” jobs have more job security than “white-collar” desk jobs.

READ MORE: See the full Blue Collar Report

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